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Kleinhenz Hg. Schmidt, M. Woyke Hg. Schumpeter, J. Sell, A. Siemon, C. Kondratieff: Hinterherlaufen oder Vorauseilen? Sinn, H. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst 6 Steinmeier, F. The institutional foundations of comparative advantage, Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. Tilly, R. Turner D. Walwei, U. Werner, W. Wohlmuth, K. Wood, S. The institutional foundations of comparative advantage, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.

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The first issue concerns the relationships between globalization and the world economic crisis. It is now more and more acknowledged that the world financial crisis has its roots in the functioning of the global economy over the last twenty five years. It is not simply a financial crisis of confidence, of lack of transparency, and of a lack of regulation.

A particular turning point of globalization has now been reached, and global increases of inequality and of global imbalances play a role. Also unbalanced reforms and the unequal dynamics of the various dimensions of globalization play a role. The current world economic crisis will therefore give momentum to new forces and directions of globalization. Japan and Germany will be affected largely because of the role of exports for their economies. World Economic Crisis — Globalization — Global Employment Crisis 45 The second issue refers to the forms, the rapidity, and the transmission mechanisms of the global employment crisis.

Very rapidly the global financial and world economic crisis has turned into a crisis of global employment, leading not only to losses of wage employment, but also to dramatic increases of the number of the working poor and of the number of the people employed in vulnerable positions all over the world. Japan and Germany are already affected and will be even more so when looking at the projections for and The global employment crisis is itself accelerating the world economic crisis, and the global social consequences are becoming severe.

Labour market institutions, social safety nets, and social security systems are threatened or even eroded globally. The third issue relates to the consequences of all that for Japan and for Germany as labour market institutions and labour market reforms are discussed and policy implications are highlighted.

A simple-minded look at more flexible labour markets and respective reforms is no longer appropriate although there was never a clear definition of what more flexibility of labour markets really means in the context of historically evolving labour market institutions. Moreover, it has to be asked how a policy response to the global crises and to further globalization dynamics can be reconciled with path-dependent labour and employment policies for these two countries. An integrated labour and employment framework is relevant for both economies, an approach that involves not only structural reforms in the context of the ongoing globalization but also quicker and better planned reactions to the causes and the international repercussions of the crises.

Two aspects of the discussion are important. There is not much reference to other causes and to the prior and the current wave of globalization. The crisis is mainly considered as a crisis of confidence, and as a crisis because of the failure to turn to a new international financial architecture. The USA are held responsible for the crisis because of the mortgage and real estate bubble, the ease of monetary policy, and because of the lack of regulation of the US financial system see Dodd ; De Michaelis However, there are so many indications that 46 Karl Wohlmuth the current crisis is much deeper routed and that it has much more severe consequences than anticipated so far.

It is even interesting to see that many proposals - to create a global financial system with more transparency, more regulation, more global supervision of financial actors, and with a new and strengthened role of the IMF — were even discussed sharper than now in the years after the Asian Crisis Wohlmuth So far, no new ideas on reforming the IMF had been coming forth, only some new funding proposals.

The concept of a World Financial Authority WFA — to coordinate globally macroeconomic policies, to supervise financial institutions and to regulate standards - was discussed intensively after the Asian Crisis. However, the most serious weakness of the current debate is the belief that the system-wide global crisis can be overcome by a new financial architecture.

The causes and the scope of the world economic crisis and the type and the implementation of much needed reform packages are ignored. We also see that the retreat of globalization starts quite early in the preceding phase of globalization as globalization forces are gradually weakened by protectionist measures, by constraining migration and capital flows, by rising nationalist and populist sentiments, etc. A look at the phases of globalization since shows that in all of these quite different globalization dimensions, interactions, and constellations were prevalent.

However, the main impact was always on convergence of productivities and structures, and on convergence of prices, real wages, per capita incomes, factor prices and factor price ratios. New policy barriers in the period of retreat on migration flows, on tariffs, and by creating new non-tariff barriers led to new price gaps between countries, thereby reducing the convergence level to the level already achieved by Also, these new policy barriers led to reduced investment and technology flows Williamson , pp.

Immigration restrictions in the US started long before the retreat already in ! Also the European tariff increases started early, decades before the world economic crisis of Political interests and producer interests determined the evolution of backlash effects over a long period before crisis.

The price and factor price convergence came to a halt and even was reversed. The danger is always there that such a backlash may occur in future waves. This analysis has implications for the situation of world economic crisis now. Both waves considered by these analyses, the third wave starting and ending around and the fourth wave starting and anticipated to end by , have to be seen as interconnected.

So we can even argue that the fourth wave according to World Bank is rather starting with a retreat, with a backlash see Falk a, b. World Bank argues that three waves of globalization are relevant, interrupted by a phase of retreat. The third wave changed fundamentally the working conditions of the globalization forces. New globalizing economies like China and India emerged and added to the global pool of labour, thereby quickly changing the global division of labour, but also the global income structure and the global demand for labour.

A new world economy has emerged after In the World Bank report a fourth wave of globalization is presented, starting in Scenarios are discussed for the 25 years up to Anticipated is - beside of demographic shifts and a new interaction of all important globalization dimensions - a further huge increase of the global labour force. Growth may be powered by developing countries, so by Southern Engines of world economic growth see also Desai A further convergence of incomes may occur between developed and developing countries.

If such income increases occur, poverty rates could decline globally. Developing countries are seen as drivers, as engines of global growth, covering by around one third of the global output, while their share of the global purchasing power may even exceed one half World Bank , p. It is also argued that these results are robust considering all the shocks and crises that we have seen in the period of the third wave - The report foresees even better results in terms of growth and poverty reduction if technical advances are more intensively used and if good policies are more widely pursued.

What can then explain the emergence of the crisis of today? These three stresses have already emerged as serious problems in the third wave of the period , but without any determined attempt to govern globally these problems, and they may become particular stresses in the fourth wave up to If not properly managed, these stresses may produce backlash effects that are similar to the situation that led to the World Economic Crisis — Globalization — Global Employment Crisis 49 retreat of All the three stresses have built up in the world economic system since , and the situation can become explosive indeed.

World Bank , pp. Altogether, the danger is great that non-adequate policies at global, regional and national governance levels will lead to de-globalization pressures and new crises. The lack of appropriate global governance institutions comes out as a major problem when we review the policy responses in different phases of globalization.

In the third and in the fourth phase of globalization the lack of such institutions is however becoming more and more disastrous. This is the current crisis situation. We have an unpredictable situation with a wide range of unexpected consequences. Two major arguments are of relevance. Global current account imbalances and global income inequalities may be mentioned as the key policy problems that 50 Karl Wohlmuth emerged in the third wave of globalization.

These policy failures relate directly to phenomena that we observed as the debt crisis of the American private households, as the subprime and mortgage crisis, as the crisis of the global banking system, as the collapse of the inter-bank payments systems, and finally as the global credit crunch and the world economic crisis.

mittels mehrzeilendetektorspiral-ct-klinische erfahrungen: Topics by amygybokihyd.tk

Over many years international reports from the International Monetary Fund IMF and from the Bank for International Settlements BIS have warned the global economic community that the global economic imbalances, especially the US current account deficits, will increase volatility and risks, and will create severe problems for the world economy. It was also referred to allocation losses because of the impacts of unsustainable imbalances on business plans; to stability problems for the finance system and for the macro-economy; and to trade problems as such global imbalances may raise protectionist and interventionist tendencies.

The international economics textbooks see Wagner , pp. Global imbalances have always been considered as major sources of world economic risks, but the national and global economic governance mechanisms did not work in a way to allow for a smooth, coordinated and regulated adjustment process see the concrete proposals to cope with the US Current Account in: Jarrett The build-up of huge foreign exchange reserves in Asia for China, Japan and other countries of more than 2 trillion dollars means also that managing these reserves - with the growing portfolios that are containing more and more risks implies additional destabilizing effects for the financial markets, and an aggravation of the crises phenomena in the world economy BIS , p.

The combination of low policy interest rates in developed countries and the easing of policy rates also in emerging economies plus actions of massive foreign exchange intervention in China and other Asian countries made the monetary stimulus to credit growth increasingly a global phenomenon BIS , p.

κατάπτωση της εγγύησης Η αναγέννηση της Μασσαλίας

Various types of financial innovations led in this situation to a process of weakening credit standards World Economic Crisis — Globalization — Global Employment Crisis 51 and assessments relying on the expectation that a global spread of the risks will come into effect and will help to digest the dynamic growth of globally traded assets.

High household consumption levels at increasing indebtedness levels followed and created unsustainable positions. However, despite their warnings, the IMF and the World Bank did not anticipate the coming world economic crisis. However, some warnings were there and became louder see especially UN , , Beside of oil price and housing price developments the risk of a disorderly adjustment of the global imbalances was emphasized UN , pp. The risks of a lower US import demand and of a hard landing of the dollar were mentioned, but there was no functioning global governance mechanism in force at UN ECOSOC level to change the direction of policies in a gradual way.

The issues of global income and wage inequality and of unequal global growth come in. This brings in the dimension of increases in inequality and poverty, the dimension of insufficient employment creation and of an increasingly informal employment growth, and the dimension of wage moderation being of particular relevance for those earners who have to repay mortgages and credits. Some of the major results from the studies shed light on a further and very important cause of the current world economic crisis. The reports ILO a and OECD refer to the widening income inequalities and to the poverty increases as structural dimensions of the current crisis.

Both reports share the view that the benefits of the earlier expansionary period were unevenly shared. From the early s to the mids, in about two thirds of the countries with data coverage the total income of highincome households has expanded faster than this was the case for the income of the low-income households ILO a, p. The share of wages in total income has declined over the past decades in most of the countries, and the income gap between the top and the bottom 10 per cent of the wage earners has increased in most of the countries with data coverage ILO a, p.

It would be far too simple to argue that these trends are caused by labour market rigidities; the evidence of income inequality, of wage moderation, and 52 Karl Wohlmuth of the growth of atypical employment in the OECD countries shows the opposite. Policy and structural factors become relevant to explain all this. Because of the effects of wage moderation, the households not only in the US, but also in Japan and in Europe became increasingly indebted and pressured by debt service to fund their housing investments and also consumption ILO a, p.

Financial innovations made this possible, and financial globalization has also been a major driver of inequality, although financial globalization did not deliver to the promises for enhanced growth and employment ILO a, p. Financial globalization has not delivered as expected as many assumptions on growth, allocation and stability effects are simply wrong see Stiglitz Avoiding excessive income inequality and poverty increases and stabilizing employment levels are now the twin objectives articulated to avoid such crises in the future and to counter the current crisis.

The labour institutions in OECD countries have been widely successful in preventing even further inequality rises. However, economic, labour, social, and tax policies have contributed to the negative trends observed. The increasing number of people working under non-standard forms of employment has not only weakened the bargaining power of labour but has also increased income inequality and poverty. Declining tax progressivity was not offset by social policy actions ILO a, p. It is the particular combination of income inequalities, of wage moderation, and of the global current account imbalances that have fuelled the bubbles and have resulted in the following crises see on this: ILO c.

This meant that households of low and middle income earners, especially but not only in the USA, were financed indirectly by the households in emerging economies ILO c, p. Any significant policy action, like the tightening of the monetary policy in in the USA, eventually led to the burst of the bubble.

The energy and commodity market price shocks have also affected the crisis scenario because of putting an end to the easy money policy ILO c, p. Unregulated financial markets, growing global imbalances, stagnant wages, and the high indebtedness of the non-rich households are then at the roots of the crisis. The OECD report and also an earlier study by Cornia gives a similar analysis with similar results, but for the period from the mids to the mids and so covering the whole period of the third wave of globalization.

This causes problems for world economic policy as these five dimensions interact in effects and in cumulative outcomes. Techno-globalization affects trade globalization in various ways, especially by keeping trade structures and trade logistics dynamic and by advancing economic structures. Trade globalization however advances techno-globalization by exchanges of goods and services that are diffusing knowledge. Techno-globalization advances globalization of labour, especially by new communication and information technologies.

Globalization of 54 Karl Wohlmuth labour, trade globalization and techno-globalization all are impacting on the genesis, the spread and the working of the global value chains. Trade globalization in goods has progressed much more than in services. The question arises: What does all this mean for policies to respond to the globalization trend, to the world financial crisis, to the world economic crisis, and to the world employment crisis? All these differences in level and in speed lead to tensions — to trade conflicts, to conflicts about immigration and about the use of labour services in services trade, to tensions over production relocation outsourcing and offshoring , to tensions about technological protection and diffusion, etc.

These tensions have to be managed. If the international economic order is not adaptive, we will see that these tensions are cumulating and create negative political and economic outcomes. Many international economic problems are caused by such uneven advances of techno-globalization, financial globalization, trade globalization, globalization of labour, and the globalization of value chains, but the international economic order did not work so as to mediate these conflicts.

The world economic crisis is also the result of this gap. Many other examples can be given. There is a huge gap in the UN system with regard of global macroeconomic policy coordination as the ECOSOC is not equipped to deal with global business cycles, global macroeconomic policies, and global employment policies. Neither is the ECOSOC equipped to deal with long-term aspects of globalization and repercussions for world economic policy. A close look at the five dimensions of globalization shows that it is necessary to build a new international economic order by incorporating representative global institutions for these five dimensions into the system in an integrated way.

A World Financial Authority WFA was demanded World Economic Crisis — Globalization — Global Employment Crisis 55 again and again since the Asian crisis and even earlier to coordinate macroeconomic policies, to supervise global banks and finance institutions, and to regulate global financial markets; it is demanded now again see IWD April However, it is still not clear if and how and when it will emerge. The world financial crisis is an example that shows how the uneven progress with regard of the globalization dimensions works through the global system.

The five major globalization dimensions must be represented by international organizations with a strong mandate, and structure and functions of these organizations have to evolve in a dynamic fashion. Global governance has to be adapted continuously to the dynamics of globalization - to all the dimensions, and therefore has to be adapted to the respective speed and to the respective level of globalization. A new ILO may be necessary to cover not only labour, employment and social standards, and observing the trends of informal, vulnerable and precarious employment, but also to cover all types of employment issues in times of globalization with outsourcing, offshoring, relocation of activities in goods and services production, and along the global value chains , social welfare strategies, migration, population, refugees, and labour market and structural policies and reforms.

The reason is that a global labour market is emerging quite rapidly see IMF a , and so a global organization is needed to deal with labour, social welfare, employment and migration issues in a more comprehensive and more prognostic way. The globalization of labour — by trade in goods and services, by new forms of offshoring and outsourcing, by new waves and forms of immigration, and by new types of global value chains — is an issue of greatest importance for global governance.

All the five dimensions of globalization affect today income and wage inequality, and wage and poverty levels and structures see IMF b. Techno-globalization may have the strongest impact in the years to come, as it is also increasingly affecting the labour markets for the skilled workers. There is a strong link between the share of wages, the degree of import penetration, and the relocation of economic activities to other countries. The wage-setting behavior in the country is now very much influenced by globalization. The structure of the Japanese labour market is impacted strongly by the relocating industries see BIS , pp.

Globalization has also a strong impact on the forms of employment growth in Japan, in terms of core and periphery labour markets. However, policy has not sufficiently reacted to these developments. For Germany, we also see a strong link between globalization and labour market trends see BIS , pp. Obviously the USA is recording more positive employment effects than Japan and Germany with regard of new forms of relocation and globalization.

There may even be large downside risks. Japan and Germany are well advised to push for new global governance structures. This is in their interest as export-oriented nations and as long-term winners from globalization. Both nations can benefit from a globalization process that is governed by new global mechanisms, and by global coordination mechanisms that are learning from the past and are adapted to the new fourth wave of globalization. One economic sector after the other was affected in a short period of time.

The high-wage sector of the financial industry was affected first, mainly in the US and in the UK, but then also elsewhere, with losses of , jobs so far or even more. Then the transport sectors, the automobile industry with all the suppliers and the services around the sector , and other manufacturing sectors were affected; all sectors related to leasing financing, tourism, and consumer- and producer-related services followed.

One country after the other reports huge employment losses. China is among the countries which have lost millions of jobs within months while other millions were pushed into even more precarious working conditions why this is so after three decades of economic reforms can be read in the analysis by Bass a.

Countries with high export-orientation, like Germany and Japan, but also the US and the UK reported increasing losses of jobs. Developing countries followed in terms of employment losses because of the decline of demand for raw materials, manufactured exports, and declines of services exports. The whole machinery of globalization is affected, and the globalization itself determines the speed of transmission. ILO has already given some details and has presented some projections.

More and more sectors and countries are affected; concern is also about future employability of workers, as an extended period of unemployment will make it more difficult to get them re-employed into productive jobs. According to the ILO estimates, already between the years and there was an increase of the estimated number of workers in the world not being employed — up from 5. Global employment losses not only affect the number of the unemployed, but also — and this may become an even greater problem — the number of the working poor those earning less than 1.

Especially in developing countries but increasingly so in emerging and developed countries an increase in the number of 58 Karl Wohlmuth workers with insecure employment, low earnings and low productivity ILO , p. This means that with such trends the Millennium Declaration targets cannot be met.

A global employment crisis has emerged because the world financial and economic crisis has affected directly employment and earnings in the industrial and the emerging economies, but indirectly also in the developing countries by the way of declining demand and prices for raw materials, declining credit commitments and direct investments, and shrinking aid commitments.

The global jobs crisis also means that the conditions for earning wages and the overall working conditions may quickly worsen. According to the ILO the global decline of the probability for decent and productive work will increase poverty and social instability. The economic salvation programmes show different approaches, and obviously have different impacts on the economies. Governments and central banks are experimenting with new instruments for generating economic impulses, but the criterion of global collective action is missing, and in times of globalization this is bad news.

Japan projects an increase of unemployment by around 2 million people or more JRI , p. The Lehman Shock of Autumn brought first job cuts for the non-regular employment in manufacturing industries. Employment adjustment is however spreading to regular employment in World Economic Crisis — Globalization — Global Employment Crisis 59 many more sectors of the economy as it was not possible to generate sufficient domestic demand to compensate for the decline of exports.

Downside risks are however great so that prolonged economic salvation measures are needed. The employment crisis has also provoked ideas in Japan such as banning agencies that are supplying dispatched workers, temporary workers, or workers paid on a daily basis. But there are also warnings that an isolated tightening of the non-regular jobs sector — if not included into long-term structural labour market adjustment and social welfare reform programmes — will just lead to a new wave of overseas relocation of manufacturing activities. Social safety nets are weak for such non-regular workers, and the social situation will aggravate severely when more dismissed regular workers are re-employed as non-regular workers see in this context Keiko on the ongoing structural changes in the Japanese labour market, and Matsugi on the causes of recording still relatively low unemployment rates in Japan.

This phenomenon of re-employing former regular workers as non-regular workers was not prevalent for a long time in Japan see Yatsubayashi , but the employment crisis may change now quickly the picture. The number of non-regular workers heading a household is increasing, so that the social consequences of the employment crisis may become severe because of the low levels of social protection. A deep and integrated reform of the tax system, of the social security system, and of the minimum wage system are proposed to reestablish social safety nets under the new conditions, thereby resolving also the problem of the highly segmented dual labour market.

A complete re-adjustment of the labour market is considered necessary, and fundamental changes were proposed since decades so as to respond to the demands of globalization see Miura However, in times of the economic and employment crises and constrained by a worsening budget situation such a deep reform process will not be easy to be undertaken. This programme intends to protect jobs and to support the unemployed, and it is part of a series of fiscal stimulus packages see OECD b on the fiscal packages for Japan and other OECD countries in comparison.

However, it is not so clear if and to what extent these programmes really go into the direction of fundamental labour market adjustment and social security system reform.

Markus-Oliver Schwaab

The New Comprehensive 60 Karl Wohlmuth Employment Strategy by MHLW focuses also on the policy issue of reversing the decline of the labour force by instituting measures for the old, the youth, and the women to increase their labour force participation , and on the policy issue of reversing the declining employment to population ratio aggravated again during the crisis.

Both these trends could make a new growth phase in Japan even more difficult. Reversing the trend of an obvious erosion of social and employment security in Japan is also part of the programme, but it is not yet clear to what extent structural policies, social protection policies, and long-term economic strategies are the base for these programmes. The situation in Germany is somewhat different. Based on a rather comprehensive system of social security, a more diversified economy, and labour market reforms which have taken place over decades and especially in recent years the employment system was stabilized; and the employment crisis became visible some months later than in Japan.

Unemployment increased however in January more than in the two years before. All the three key indicators are now deteriorating unemployment is rising; social security employment is declining; and labour demand is reduced. Affected by the employment crisis are especially, but not exclusively, construction, transport, manufacturing industries, especially car and machinery production, services, finance and banks.

Reactions by government programmes to the employment crisis were related to sectors especially the car industry , by introducing various demand-stimulating measures; to an intensive use of instruments like short working arrangements Kurzarbeit , by extending the payments for workers during the working break; and less vigorously to additional vocational training and counseling measures during the crisis period. Tax wedge issues play a role in the ongoing discussion.

The difference between cost of labour for the firms and net wages paid to the workers is considered as too high. However, these issues are part of a longer-run strategic policy discussion about the future of the tax system and structure and the financing of the health and welfare state systems in Germany. The world economic crisis and the global employment crisis give rise to new social and economic questions tax wedge, tax reforms, minimum wages, etc. Und PDF Der verschollene Deutsche. Tagebuch einer Spurensuche ePub. Jahrhundert ePub. Studien zur Theorie des Kapitalismus ePub. Episode 1 Download.

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